Saturday, March 31, 2007

What Are Your Expectations for the 2007 Boston Red Sox?

Expectations can be overwhelming, especially in a city full of passionate fans such as Boston. Expectations can be derived from many different aspects. Many fans set the expectations bar high when a free agent signs a bulky contract. ‘Can he live up to the worth of it’? they ask.

Expectations don’t necessarily need to be connected to the almighty dollar sign. In many cases, these expectations are modeled on previous output, albeit in the Minor Leagues or on a different team. If a Major League player can exist in one city, they must be able to exist in any city, right? Not quite so in Boston. Sorry Edgar Renteria.

Injuries can also have a vast impact on the expectations of certain athletes in this city. After injury-plagued seasons, the questions ricochet around like racquet balls as to whether expectations have changed and what to expect from these freshly-healed baseball players.

The Boston Red Sox have very high expectations coming into this season. Reading the two prominent newspapers that circulate the city, the bar is set high: World Series or Bust. With this expectation comes pressure and questions from both the media and the fans. Who knows which entity creates more chaos in this town when it comes to the Red Sox.

Every Sox player will be under a microscope this whole season, their every move caught, analyzed, talked about and then analyzed once more. But there will be some players who have more media attention and fan frenzy swirling about them for various reasons. These are The Five Sox to Watch in 2007. This list is dedicated to those particular Sox who will be watched with magnifying glasses and picked through with fine tooth combs.

Players arranged with regard to level of expectation, from the bottom up.

Josh Beckett

Questions: Can he lower his home run total and ERA?

What has he learned since last year?

With one year under his belt in the Heavy Weight division know as the AL East, Beckett’s expectations have risen from last season. This spring, Beckett has slowed his delivery for better mechanics and has thrown more curves and changes than he did all of last season. Beckett also vows to listen to his catcher more than he did last season. Beckett is confident that these changes will allow him to take his game to the next level. The bottom line is that Josh Beckett threw two 83 mile per hour changeups and started more than half of his opposing batters with a curve in his last spring start. If Beckett can keep healthy and pitch like he did in that spring game, the Red Sox will have a ace waiting in the wings when Schill moves on.

Expectations: 18 wins, 150-200 K’s and an ERA below four.

A Cy Young Award or damn close to it.

Jason Varitek

Questions: Will his bat return to pre-2006 form?

Can he handle the work load and stay healthy?

For Jason Varitek, the questions become almost endless, between learning the new pitchers, learning Japanese, working on his offensive game and staying healthy as a soon-to-be 35-year-old catcher, Varitek is inundated with questions at the start of the 2007 season. In only the second season of a four year $40 Million contract, Varitek posted five-year lows in total at-bats, total bases, batting average, hits, homeruns, runs batted in and extra base hits. Varitek is all alone atop the Games Behind the Plate as a Red Sox Catcher all-time list with over 1,000 games in his career. This doesn’t bode well for Varitek because older age and being a catcher for as long as he has brings serious and chronic (don’t you hate this word?) injury questions into the foreground. I know I’m not alone when I say that I am concerned about Jason Varitek’s ability to be a consistent bat in the Sox line-up come this season. (Even though he can handle the pitching staff better than anyone in baseball, he still needs to pull his weight in the line-up. $40 Million is $40 Million no matter what way you look at it.)

Expectations: .265 BA / .470 SLG / 14 HR / 67 RBI

135 games played and a happy pitching staff.

Coco Crisp

Questions: Can we see the Cleveland version of Coco this year?

Is he healthy enough to play 150 meaningful games in 2007?

I was as big a Coco Crisp enthusiast as anyone last spring when he was hitting the cover off the ball and started the season quite the same. One broken finger and a sub-par season later, Coco’s go-go is in question after he hit .184 with only two extra base hits in 38 at-bats this spring. Crisp denied throughout the spring that his finger and shoulder (which he hurt swinging too hard) are healthy and that he really doesn’t care what fans say about him. Perhaps Coco should have a chat with Keith Foulke before addressing the media again. Crisp can return to the form he was in at Cleveland if he is 100% healthy to begin the season. As Red Sox fans we should see more stolen bases from Crisp than last year due to his spot (eighth) in the line-up. Newfound freedom should equal more stolen bases and less pressure to perform at the top of the line-up.

Expectations: .285 BA, 30-35 SB, 16 HR, 68 RBI

A healthy season in centerfield and in both batting boxes.

J.D. Drew

Questions: Can he play 150 games a year?

Does he have the mindset to play in Boston?

J.D. Drew has flown under the radar this spring because of a certain player receiving considerable notoriety for his arrival to the team. Flying under the radar seems to be one of Drew’s favorite past times, along with being patient at the plate and quiet in the club house. All of that will just be water cooler talk if he can stay healthy and be that safety net behind Ortiz and Ramirez that the Red Sox have lacked since Kevin Millar had a productive season here in 2003 (25 homeruns and 96 RBI). The presence of Drew in the line-up brings a left-right-left counter balance to the 3-4-5 meat and potatoes of the line-up and optimistically brings up the RBI production of a five-spot in the batting order that ranked near the bottom of the league in 2006.

Expectations: A healthy (150 games played) season, with more to come.

.280 BA/.400 OBP/20-25 homeruns/ 100 RBI’s

Daisuke Matsuzaka

Questions: Can he learn enough to stay ahead of the hitter’s learning curve?

Will the pressure of the Media / Fans take a toll on him?

Arguably the player with the highest expectations coming into 2007, Matsuzaka has more questions surrounding him than a Bar Exam. Anybody who has followed Dice-K Mania this spring knows what it has been like. Matsuzaka seems to have taken most of it in stride aside from the silent treatment after five innings of no-hit spring training ball. I have watched Matsuzaka start twice this spring and he has allowed one hit and thrown at least one gyro ball. I think. Maybe. The comparisons to Pedro Martinez are right there in front of you. Ability to change speeds and movement on changeup? Check. Ability to dial the fastball up when needed? Check and check. Ability to bewilder batters and send them away talking to themselves? So far, so good. Matsuzaka has been in the spot light most of his adult life so I don’t see the increased media attention being a problem.

Expectations: 18-7 W-L / 3.40 ERA / 200 IP / 179 K

As with Beckett, Cy Young consideration and health (30 starts).

Monday, March 26, 2007

Daisuke Impresses again...

Monday March 26 is usually just another day of spring training. Not for Red Sox fans such as myself. Daisuke Matsuzaka is taking the mound today for a his second-to-last start before his regular season-debut in Kansas City.

The weather here in Boston is crappy, but in my heart it feels 85 and sunny because I know how good Dice-K is.

1:08: First pitch to Julio Lugo. Lugo is down 0-2 and grounds the ball to who else but Alex Gonzalez. And he boots it! Why do I feel a tiny sense of happiness from this?

1:10: Why are the Sox players hacking away at the first and second pitch? OBP doesn’t mean anything? I seem to think otherwise. Also, Jason Varitek is colder than a block of ice in Hudson Bay. He just struck out looking on three pitches and the announcers mention that Varitek hopes the calls go both ways today. Very in depth.

1:14: There are more cameras behind the plate capturing Matsuzaka than at the Emmys and Grammys combined. Jesus.

1:16: To go along with every possible camera angle, Matsuzaka shows us all how to walk the leadoff hitter. Early on, Matsuzaka does not have good control. 3-0 to Adam Dunn. Green light? Yup. Luckily, just a fly ball to some guy named Scales playing in Manny’s spot. Ahh, spring training.

1:20: The language barrier rears its head as a pitch out turns into a changeup that rolls to the back stop. Why can’t we all just speak English and be happy?

1:23: Can ESPN stop with the behind the plate 100 feet high camera angle? I can’t see anything except the umpire and some specks on the field and mound. 1st inning over, one walk, one passed ball and thee outs later, D-Mat is….just a pitcher, so calm down Japanese media.

I love these ‘got an MLB mindset?’ commercials, with the fish guy swinging through a full grown salmon with some oversize version of a crow bar, spraying everyone with fishy entrails. Very creative I must say. It certainly makes me want to play MLB 2007.

1:29: I have seen a steady diet of ground balls to third by Dustin Pedroia this spring. Some hard hit balls, yes, but I need to see more of him before I trust he can hit a solid .270 - .290 in this league. As I say this, the sox go 1-2-3 again in quick, painless fashion. More line drives up the middle would make me feel a lot better. It seems as though he is trying to pull everything and trying too hard still. Can mike Lowell talk to him or something? The fatherly presence that he is said to be in the club house and all.

John Sciambi and Rick Sutcliffe are our announcers du jour. Sciambi looks like he could be Mark McGuire’s long lost pudgy little brother while Rick Sutcliffe is doing a commendable job so far.

1:33: The announcers keep saying that they are surprised how Dice-K works differently than American pitchers. Well, this just in: he’s Japanese! Edwin Encarnacion just K’d on a filthy little curve ball. Nice to see.

Can ESPN please cut out the top-of-the-stadium camera angle? I think I’m going to be sick.

1:40: Another out, another K for Dice-K on old friend Alex Gonzalez. 93 mph fastball on the outside corner, and once again the announcers call Dice-K a breaking ball pitcher with a 95 mph fastball. Okaaaaay, this is news to me...

1:42: How do you record a catcher’s interference in the book? How do you say catcher’s interference in Japanese? Maybe Jason Varitek has it on his NFL playbook style wristband.

1:43: 44 pitches thru 2 innings? Not too good, even though Dice-K has not allowed a hit. I don’t think he has anyways. What the hell does catcher’s interference count as? Someone contact Alias for me. Apparently, it counts as an error. Oops. And I thought I knew baseball.

1:47: Here’s a tidbit of trivia for you ... who led the NL in strikeouts last season? How many guesses would it take for you to say Aaron Harang with 216?

1:48: That Scales guy just squirted a single through the left side for the first hit of the day. Dice-K looks pretty lost at the plate trying to get a bunt down. Bobby Livingston, the starter for the Reds did not get the memo about Matsuzaka not swinging as he walked him on five pitches.

1:58: Why am I worried about pitch counts when the man on the mound doesn’t ice his arm and plays 300 foot long toss? A man who once threw 17 consecutive innings as a high school pitcher and who throws 100 pitch bullpens like they are child’s play. Aside from that, he does have three walks so far, but it seems like he’s getting a tiny bit squeezed by the boys in blue. Call me a homer…..

2:05: Would Jason Varitek circa 2004 please stand up, please stand up….two K’s in 2 ugly at bats for ‘The Eighteenth Captain in Red Sox History!’ Did he really fall off the hitting plateau that far in so short a time period? He worries me coming into the season, even if he is healthy and “ready.”

2:13: Three straight breaking balls miss high after a three pitch strike out as Scott Hatterberg flies out on a 3-1 count to coco. D-Mat will not get away with 3-1 fastballs for a long time in this league. If he falls behind 3-1 consistently, the home run total will inflate and we won’t be talking about D-Mat the phenom, we’ll be talking about D-Mat the gopher ball generator.

2:21: 4 innings, 4 K’s, 4 walks, no hits and about 700 pitches thrown. According to Rick Sutcliffe, Dice-K is not happy with him self and keeps slapping his ball and his leg. Maybe ‘Cliffer is another one of those expert body-language readers like all the guys on The Big Show of WEEI.

2:27: “Cliffer and John Sciambi commend Bobby Livingston of his great outing so far, capped off by a strike out of the best power hitter in the sox line-up, Daisuke Matsuzaka. What a job indeed.

2:32: Matsuzaka has thrown 90 pitches and he’s not out of the fifth inning. Worrisome, yes, but he hasn’t given up a hit yet, which is not so worrisome. And he just struck out another Reds batter.

2:34: D-Mat must be intimidated by the massive size of Adam Dunn because he has trouble throwing strikes to him. Sort of. I wonder if he ever saw anyone that big in the Japanese premier league. D-Mat walks Dunn again, his fifth of the afternoon.

2:36: I think I just spotted the gyro ball! Sutcliffe said that Brandon Phillips swung and missed at a fastball, but he was ahead of it. Way ahead of it. How do you get ahead of a first pitch fastball that is usually around 92 – 95 mph? He struck him out with the fast ball, but without sounding like a whack job that supposedly got abducted by a UFO, that WAS the gyro ball. I’m now a believer. Formerly a skeptic, now a believer. Question: would Tito leave Dice-K in the game even with the 100 pitches because he has a spring training no-no going? Probably not, but its fun to ponder isn’t it?

2:46: We are now watching Matsuzaka run his poles across the warning track as John Sciambi cracks a joke that we are now running into the bottom of the sixth. I love spring training announcers.

A business man steals a base across a busy city street, finishes with a pop-up slide in front of a pudgy Asian man and that, is another ‘MLB 2007: The Show’ advertisement. God, I want to play that game wicked bad right now. I want to slide on the side walk and hit a fish with a crow bar.

2:50: Bottom six, Jonathan Papelbon is now pitching for the Sox. So much for the no-hitter. I could get used to this scenario: Matsuzaka for eight innings, Papelbon for one, as Papelbon K’s Junior Griffey for the first out. One can only dream.

2:54: Papelbon hangs a slider that is nothing but a long out to that Scales guy once again. Scales has gotten the most face time in this running journal, aside from Dice-K. Too bad he won’t make the opening day roster. Inning over, 1-2-3. One K and another no-hit inning in the books. Too bad the sox only have one more hit than the Reds do.

3:03: Griffey junior just wished Barry Bonds the best of luck in his chase for the all-time homerun record. Why do a huge percentage of major league hitters feel the need to back up Barry Bonds, even when they must know his head and feet have grown as much as his testicles have shrunk?

3:07: Craig Hansen enters the game as I hold my breath. He doesn’t have a drip of confidence in himself right now. Maybe a hair cut would do him some good because he looks like Johnny Damon circa 2005

3:11: Rick Sutcliffe doesn’t think the Red Sox can hang with the Yanks yet. He doesn’t feel like they have taken the necessary steps. What an Ass.

3:13: Hansen is officially in a jam. Base hit, broken bat single, hit by pitch and just one out. Another hit batter and Hansen is officially psyched out. I can’t imagine what’s going through his mind right now.

3:16: The wheels are officially off. Base on balls equals another run for the Reds. Why does the name Rick Ankiel come to mind and why am I all of the sudden cold?

3:20: Another walk and another run. U-g-l-y. Hansen is pulled, thankfully. His line: 2/3 IP, 2 hits, 2 HBP, 2 BB, 2 K, 5 ER and one case of insomnia for every sox fan who has faith in “The Kids.”

3:26: 5-0 Cincy in the eighth as the game is pretty much over and I could care less, but Kyle Snyder is pitching and he could grab a final spot in the Sox ‘pen, so I watch with vested interest….sort of. Inning over, 5-0 Cincinnati.

3:31: Could Rick Sutcliffe please mention again that he loves the way Matsuzaka “spins the baseball”? He’s only mentioned it about 17 times and to tell you the truth, it doesn’t take a Harvard scholar to know that every pitcher spins the ball. Have I mentioned that I love the spring training announcers on ESPN?

Game over, as the Cincinnati Reds beat the Boston Red Sox 5-0 in a fun-to-watch spring training game. Daisuke Matsuzaka’s final line: 5 IP, 0 H, 5 BB, 6 K and about 100 pitches thrown.

The bottom line here is that Matsuzaka faced the opening day roster for the Reds and did not allow a hit over five innings. His control was not spectacular, but he obviously pitched well enough to keep a major league line-up subdued.